Author Archive for: dslizcurtin

Entries by Daniel Ogden

The Bitcoin Bear

Cryptocurrencies collapse Bear markets reveal economic mistakes. In 2000 the mistake was investing too early in the Internet, resulting in the Dot-Com bust. In 2008 it was loaning too much money on easy terms to home buyers. This time the mistake was leaving interest rates too low for too long. Practically “free money” encouraged speculation […]

The Bond Bear Market

Another asset class suffering permanent value destruction In another note we introduced the idea of permanent value destruction vs the temporary variety. Hundreds of Cryptocurrencies and recent IPOs without earnings were examples. But these markets are relatively small when compared with the bond market. Total outstanding US Government Bonds are worth over $30 trillion, almost […]

Value Destruction—Temporary and Permanent

Cash profits are the tell In every bear market the value of some businesses are destroyed forever. (And yes, this is a bear market.) In the 2000-2002 bear, it was the Dot-Com stocks without business profits that never recovered. In 2008, it was the financial stocks that had “pretend profits”— Citibank fell from $550 to […]

Not Unprecedented

So far this is a “normal” year for stocks, even though it doesn’t feel that way The chart below helps us put this year’s nasty stock market in perspective. The green dots mark the gain or loss for the full year, while the gray bars indicate the largest loss during that year.  The average loss […]

How We Think About Corrections

Getting through to the other side of the valley This is the third time in four years that the market has fallen this hard: the fall of 2018, the winter of 2020 and now this. Do those past corrections tell us anything about what to expect this time? 2020 was an outlier because of lockdowns, […]

Individuals Matter

History can teach us something about investing The war in Ukraine has revealed a truth about history largely ignored for a couple of generations—individuals matter and individuals make history. Vladimir Putin and Volodymyr Zelensky prove the point. Since Karl Marx developed the idea that history could be approached scientifically, the ancient emphasis on individual actors […]

The Energy Crisis of 2022

War divides the world, threatening prosperity The invasion of Ukraine is a human catastrophe and threatens to be a serious problem for the world economy. The price of crude oil is up 60% this year and might be on its way to a record above $150. More than one recession has been associated with high […]

What Would Tom Hodgman Do Today?

Tom Joined Dock Street in 1995—the best partner anyone could ask for When Dock Street really came together in the mid 1990’s, the Greenwich office was filled with highly experienced investors. So on days like today I often ask myself what would Stillman Rockefeller, Jack Howell, and Jon Old be doing with their stock portfolios? […]

Collateral Damage

A correction can take the good with the bad January has been a nasty month for stock investors, but it should not have come as a surprise. Charlie Bilello says it well: Drawdowns are the norm for equities, not the exception; they are the price investors must pay to earn higher long-term returns than bonds […]

What is Growth?

Not all growth companies deserve the name Along with much of the stock market, Dock Street portfolios have suffered in the last week as active traders focus on the threat of rising interest rates. These same active traders are sitting on fat profits from the massive increase in stock prices since the low set in […]

The Taxi Driver Signal

Investment advice from the wrong people Toward the end of every bull market there are signs of speculation—as opposed to investing. Earlier this week Evan McGoff was treated to several minutes of cryptocurrency advice from a gig driver, the modern version of a taxi driver. Remarkably the driver wasn’t recommending Bitcoin, the first and largest […]

Rooting for the Stocks We Don’t Own

Fewer stocks are pushing the market higher Most of the stocks we own in portfolios happen to be larger companies. This is not a criterion for investment at Dock Street, but it is the result of 1) holding great businesses for many years as they get bigger, and 2) finding more of the financial advantages […]

The Correction Season

Trimming expectations in the short-term The chart below illustrates the 18% gain for the stock market so far this year. At this rate the market will be up over 30% in 2021—an outcome we find unlikely.

Business Sales Recover, and Then Some

The stock market saw this coming Another historic chart, but this time it’s good news. Business sales in April were up 40% from the Pandemic year before. A normal good year would show a 15% gain in sales.

Inflation: Back to the Seventies?

How to protect our investments from inflation A couple of weeks ago we discussed the current economy and concluded that we are in the midst of a massive boom in activity. But is the economy running too hot? Is this a real economic expansion or one only fueled by massive cash creation by the Federal […]

Finding the Best Business Partner

And once you found them, don’t let go There are two fundamental ideas that guide our process at Dock Street: Long-term business ownership is the primary wealth creation engine.  The stock market offers investors the opportunity to partner with entrepreneurs and managers who focus on long-term business improvement.

Indexing at Dock Street

One year ago the market crashed—who sold and who didn’t? Simply buying a broadly based stock index rather than a portfolio of individual stocks is a rational plan. But there’s a catch. Experience suggests that investment success can be defined as avoiding the mistake of selling at the worst possible moment. And the stock market […]

What Just Changed?

The latest pullback in stocks In the last few days stock prices have fallen modestly, with most of the damage in the types of stocks we own in our portfolios. The reason for this might be lurking in the following two charts.  First is the cash money supply–checking accounts and currency. This is a 50 […]

Some Covid Numbers

Cases are down and vaccinations are up We present the following charts without much comment. Never before have we seen an event where the same facts can be interpreted in so many different ways. So rather than interpret the facts, these charts attempt to show what is happening. First, here are the latest numbers and […]

10 Minute Economist

A different kind of recession and recovery The strength of the US economy (and stock market) remains a mystery to many given the high levels of unemployment and remaining lockdowns in several large states. We have never lived through a government mandated recession followed by a government engineered recovery so using economic history as a […]

Making Money While Being Wrong

A year full of worries, and great returns for stock investors Last June we sent out an email entitled: “No More Lockdowns” (attached). Six months later it’s obvious that our prediction was wrong. In spite of that Dock Street clients enjoyed one of the best years in decades.

© Dock Street asset management, Inc. All Rights Reserved.