Author Archive for: evandockstreetcom

Entries by Evan McGoff

Reading from Primary Sources

Cutting out the middleman We read a lot. But we’re selective about what we read. Starting about 7 years ago, I cut down my news consumption and started reading more from primary sources. For example, instead of reading an article about the GDP report—read the actual GDP report.

Profits over Headlines

Why we start with the financials Everyone has heard of Twitter. Few people have heard of Cadence Design Systems. You could call both companies “Technology companies” and their annual revenue is comparable (Twitter’s revenue is about 5.2B, Cadence’s is about 3.3B). But that’s where the similarities end. 

The Millennials’ Correction

Demographics as Destiny Nobody is born knowing anything. As a consequence, each generation tends to learn the same lessons as the prior ones, but under some different circumstances.  Millennials just learned that the stock market doesn’t always go up. It mostly goes up, but that “mostly” smooths over some rather rough stretches. 

No Recession in Discretionary Spending

Consumers aren’t hunkering down despite higher costs Nobody has to go to a restaurant. It’s a choice. When times are tough and you need to be more cautious with spending, going to restaurants is a simple thing to cut out of your budget.  Lately the rising costs of nearly everything has investors concerned that a […]

In Spite of All The Danger

Business continues as usual The beginning of 2022 has been a tough start for the market—and it’s not even half over. There’s a laundry list of things to worry about, and prognosticators are tripping over themselves to warn you about how it’s all about to get much worse.  While the companies we own have fallen […]

Isn’t Investing Just Gambling?

No, it’s better, because the odds are in your favor After watching Super Bowl commercials this weekend, it’s pretty clear that there’s a lot of gambling going on. Several commercials highlighted apps that allow you to trade crypto-currencies & stocks in the same app. And several others were about apps that let you bet on […]

Future Corporate Earnings

The signal in a sea of noise In September we wrote about how despite all the bad news, estimates for future earnings continued to rise. Now that we’re rounding out 2021 and there’s even more bad news, what are the prospects for 2022 and beyond?  Below is an updated version of the chart we sent […]

Corporate Profits Drive The Market

Stock prices anticipate future corporate earnings The stock market has had a near vertical ascent for about 18 months. This has surprised many people as there has been no shortage of things to fret about. But the stock market is a forward looking indicator, and it correctly anticipated a sharp recovery in corporate profits.

Scouting the Terrain

Defending an argument, or trying to learn?  Everyone’s talking about inflation these days. That makes sense—prices for all kinds of things are increasing at higher rates than we’ve seen in years.  Some of this is simple arithmetic. 2020 had collapsing prices. Inflation is typically measured against last year. As the economy recovers in 2021, increases […]

Wisdom from Other People

Sharing some of what we read We like communicating our thoughts in writing. But sometimes someone else says it so well that it’s better to just share what they wrote.  A research firm that we’ve subscribed to for decades wrote the following this weekend: “A lesser-known pearl of Wall Street wisdom says that sometimes the […]

Avoiding International Stocks

But Owning Multinationals Nearly every business we own is based in the United States. But that doesn’t mean these companies don’t benefit from the growing global middle class. To the contrary, many of the larger US companies are “multinationals” that do a majority of their sales outside the country. 

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