Will the Fed Go Too Far?

Will the Fed Go Too Far?

They often have Last week Evan McGoff made the reasonable argument that a recession is unlikely when so many economic indicators trend higher, not lower. The bearish (pessimistic) view is that these same indicators will result in higher inflation readings and the...
No Recession in Spending or Employment

No Recession in Spending or Employment

Ed Yardeni’s “No Landing” Scenario Over the last several months, we’ve written a few letters about the resilience of the economy, despite the many concerns about a recession – “No Recession in Discretionary Spending” and “Recession Watch”. Here’s a quick update: The...
Will the Fed Go Too Far?

The Good News About Layoffs

Big tech gets leaner For the first time in years the big news out of Silicon Valley concerns large scale layoffs. Layoffs normally result from falling sales or profits, but that’s not currently the case in most large technology companies. Sales are up and so are...
Will the Fed Go Too Far?

Recession Watch

The most well advertised recession in history The consensus in the stock market appears to be that a recession in 2023 is a near certainty. We agree, but will it be an economy-wide recession or one that is confined to certain sectors of the economy, such as housing?...
No Recession in Spending or Employment

Do Tech Layoffs Mean Anything?

Tech is always in its own world Several large tech companies have been making headlines about layoffs. They’ve used lots of scary language about recessions and upcoming weakness. Meanwhile, jobless claims and employment figures for the economy as a whole do not show...
Headlines vs History

Headlines vs History

A lot can happen in a week, but is it important? Last week offered an extreme example of the futility in trying to trade on headlines. At the start of the week, the election dominated headlines, and a red wave was assumed to be incoming. Conventional wisdom was that...