by Daniel Ogden | Feb 28, 2023 | General
They often have Last week Evan McGoff made the reasonable argument that a recession is unlikely when so many economic indicators trend higher, not lower. The bearish (pessimistic) view is that these same indicators will result in higher inflation readings and the...
by Evan McGoff | Feb 17, 2023 | General
Ed Yardeni’s “No Landing” Scenario Over the last several months, we’ve written a few letters about the resilience of the economy, despite the many concerns about a recession – “No Recession in Discretionary Spending” and “Recession Watch”. Here’s a quick update: The...
by Daniel Ogden | Jan 31, 2023 | General
Big tech gets leaner For the first time in years the big news out of Silicon Valley concerns large scale layoffs. Layoffs normally result from falling sales or profits, but that’s not currently the case in most large technology companies. Sales are up and so are...
by Daniel Ogden | Dec 21, 2022 | General
The most well advertised recession in history The consensus in the stock market appears to be that a recession in 2023 is a near certainty. We agree, but will it be an economy-wide recession or one that is confined to certain sectors of the economy, such as housing?...
by Evan McGoff | Dec 1, 2022 | General
Tech is always in its own world Several large tech companies have been making headlines about layoffs. They’ve used lots of scary language about recessions and upcoming weakness. Meanwhile, jobless claims and employment figures for the economy as a whole do not show...
by Spencer Ogden | Nov 17, 2022 | General
A lot can happen in a week, but is it important? Last week offered an extreme example of the futility in trying to trade on headlines. At the start of the week, the election dominated headlines, and a red wave was assumed to be incoming. Conventional wisdom was that...
