Ed Yardeni’s “No Landing” Scenario
Over the last several months, we’ve written a few letters about the resilience of the economy, despite the many concerns about a recession – “No Recession in Discretionary Spending” and “Recession Watch”.

Big tech gets leaner
For the first time in years the big news out of Silicon Valley concerns large scale layoffs. Layoffs normally result from falling sales or profits, but that’s not currently the case in most large technology companies. Sales are up and so are profits, just not as much as they enjoyed in the last few years.

The most well advertised recession in history
The consensus in the stock market appears to be that a recession in 2023 is a near certainty. We agree, but will it be an economy-wide recession or one that is confined to certain sectors of the economy, such as housing?

Tech is always in its own world
Several large tech companies have been making headlines about layoffs. They’ve used lots of scary language about recessions and upcoming weakness.

A lot can happen in a week, but is it important?
Last week offered an extreme example of the futility in trying to trade on headlines. At the start of the week, the election dominated headlines, and a red wave was assumed to be incoming...

Pictures tell the story best
Inflation is the number one topic on the minds of nearly everyone right now. 

Being greedy when others are fearful
Our timing might not be ideal, but we do believe that the fall of 2022 will turn out to have been a very good time to put cash into the stock market. Recommending stocks at a time like this is hardly revolutionary. In October of 2008 Warren Buffett wrote a New York Times op-ed entitled, “Buy American, I Am”...

What does history tell us?
We don’t know when the current bear market will end, but we do know that it will end. When it does, the stock market will recover, so the question then becomes, how fast and to what levels?

Investing for the long-term isn’t always exciting
When talking to a client about venture capital investment, and the excitement of being involved in the startup world, I was reminded of a story from Jon Krakauer’s book Eiger Dreams. 

This is not our first bear market and it won’t be our last
The Federal Reserve and the stock market have concluded that the only way to bring inflation down is to engineer a recession. With 20-20 hindsight it is clear that the Fed screwed up in 2021 by failing to begin a measured increase in interest rates back to pre-Pandemic levels.